CMHC Research: Potential Supply/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock

The challenge

<strong>Background: </strong> <strong>CMHC requested analysis on different scenarios that can affect demand and supply of housing. </strong> Long-term balance between supply and demand is critical to ensure all households can meet their core housing need. <ul> <li>Affordable: Less than 30% of household income</li> <li>Suitable: the dwelling is a sufficient size for the household</li> <li>Adequate: the dwelling is in a state of good repair</li> </ul> If demand exceeds supply: <ul> <li>Ownership prices and rents may grow faster than incomes.</li> <li>Affordable dwellings may be unsuitable or inadequate for households.</li> </ul> If supply exceeds demand: <ul> <li>Investment in rental housing (purpose-build or secondary) may not be economical.</li> </ul> Demand and supply are geographically sensitive: <ul> <li>The supply of dwellings must geographically match demand.</li> </ul> <strong>Supply Trends Scenarios</strong> Three supply scenarios are examined based on historical rates: <ul> <li><b>Status Quo</b>: The 5-year average rate of completions continues</li> <li><b>Increased Construction</b>: The rate of completions increases to 1 standard deviation above the Status Quo</li> <li><b>Decreased Construction</b>: The rate of completions decreases to 1 standard deviation below the Status Quo</li> </ul> <strong>Demographic Trends Scenarios</strong> Three demographic scenarios are considered: <ul> <li><b>Recent trends</b>: Migration, birth, and death follow the recent rates including declining death rates (people living longer) and birth rates (smaller family sizes)</li> <li><b>High growth</b>: Increased immigration and stable birth rates</li> <li><b>Low growth</b>: Decreased immigration</li> </ul> &nbsp; An Excel database of results (9 scenario combinations across 27 spatial resolutions) that can be filtered (by scenario combination, spatial resolution, year, dwelling size and type etc.) was generated. Download results:  <a href="https://www.cancea.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CMHC-Housing-Stock-and-Demand.pdf">CMHC Housing Stock and Demand</a>

Key results